Water FractalTier 1
at GG Adelaide DTR Regional
decks
2
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-4-2
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.0%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
51.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1217
· median 1217
· range 1132–1303
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1046
Q1 1196
Q3 1344
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 25.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Fire Suited | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.5% | +23.2 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.7% | +25.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.1% | -5.7 |
| Water Ciel | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
