Water AetherwingTier 2
at GG Adelaide DTR Regional
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-1-2
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.4%
avg ELO +6.6 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1215
· median 1215
· range 1215–1215
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1046
Q1 1196
Q3 1344
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 25.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.8% | +23.7 |
| Fire Suited | 10.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ciel | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
