Water CielTier 2
at GG Adelaide DTR Regional
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.2%
avg ELO +5.9 per match
expected value
51.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1283
· median 1283
· range 1283–1283
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1046
Q1 1196
Q3 1344
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 25.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.7 |
| Fire Suited | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
