← Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-5-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.2%
avg ELO -9.1 per match
expected value
29.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
37.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1159
· median 1159
· range 1159–1159
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1170
Q3 1358
1484
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 50.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 35.8% | -10.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.8% | -6.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
