← Mad Alpaca Games Davis Store Championship
Fire AggroTier 2
at Mad Alpaca Games Davis Store Championship
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.8%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
42.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1049
· median 1049
· range 1049–1049
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1343
Q3 1450
1550
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 72.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 27.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 18.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Fire Exia | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Aggro decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
