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Fire OblationTier 1
at Mad Alpaca Games Davis Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 72.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 46.7% | -1.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 18.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.1% | -20.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Exia | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Water Allies | 9.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lingering Banshee | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Arsonist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |