← Mad Alpaca Games Davis Store Championship
Fire RileTier 2
at Mad Alpaca Games Davis Store Championship
decks
8
(72.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
9-8-1
overall winrate
52.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.1%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
48.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1377
· median 1381
· range 1164–1550
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1343
Q3 1450
1550
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 27.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 53.3% | +1.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 18.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.1% | -20.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 46.5% | -2.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Exia | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Water Allies | 9.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.1% | +7.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.8% | +5.1 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Heavenly Guide, Nullifying Lantern, Orb of Sealing. Losers more often ran: Flame Sweep, Rending Flames, Reduce to Ash.
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Nullifying Lantern
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Orb of Sealing
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Ciel, Mirage's Grave
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Baleful Oblation
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Flame Sweep
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Rending Flames
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Sovereign Sanctuary
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 105 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 85 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flame Sweep | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Profane Bindings | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Berserker Plate | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lingering Banshee | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Arsonist | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |