← LabyrinthGames Brunei Regionals Tournament
Water AlliesTier 2
at LabyrinthGames Brunei Regionals Tournament
decks
3
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
10-4-5
overall winrate
65.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.0%
avg ELO +3.9 per match
expected value
58.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1288
· median 1303
· range 1119–1442
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1152
Q3 1279
1571
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suited | 20.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 66.0% | +10.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 8.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +5.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.2% | -5.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
