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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suited | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 8.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.0% | -7.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.9% | +21.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +3.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |