← LabyrinthGames Brunei Regionals Tournament
Water FractalTier 2
at LabyrinthGames Brunei Regionals Tournament
decks
2
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-7-0
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.5%
avg ELO -3.2 per match
expected value
45.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1317
· median 1317
· range 1278–1356
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1152
Q3 1279
1571
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suited | 20.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.1% | -7.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 8.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.8% | -14.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Water Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
