EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Regionals!. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Rile

57.1%

28.9% share · 57 matches

1st

Fire Suited

59.2%

2.6% share · 8 matches

3rd

Horse and Taxes

55.7%

5.3% share · 15 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Suited	1	2.6%	8	81.2%	77.4%	59.2%	62.0%	1337	—
2	Fire Rile	11	28.9%	57	61.4%	54.2%	57.1%	53.2%	1337	—
3	Horse and Taxes	2	5.3%	15	70.0%	62.3%	55.7%	55.5%	1302	—
4	Fire Crux Mage	1	2.6%	7	64.3%	53.1%	55.2%	51.2%	1405	↑ top
5	Wind Luxem Assassin	1	2.6%	6	66.7%	64.0%	53.8%	57.2%	1282	—
6	Wind Umbra Diana	1	2.6%	8	62.5%	51.1%	53.3%	52.5%	1229	↓ low
7	Wind Astra Cleric	1	2.6%	7	57.1%	49.6%	52.0%	50.0%	1404	↑ top
8	Fire Luxem Assassin	2	5.3%	13	50.0%	43.0%	48.8%	46.1%	1356	↑ top
9	Wind Shadowstrike	7	18.4%	41	52.4%	53.4%	48.6%	50.3%	1306	—
10	Fire Exia	1	2.6%	7	42.9%	38.2%	47.9%	45.3%	1408	↑ top
11	Fire Suzaku	2	5.3%	12	50.0%	39.0%	47.3%	44.5%	1345	—
12	Water Aetherwing	1	2.6%	7	42.9%	58.0%	47.1%	51.5%	1298	—
13	Wind Seiryuu	6	15.8%	36	48.6%	47.9%	46.3%	47.5%	1309	—
14	Wind Wakeup Combo	1	2.6%	5	40.0%	38.7%	46.2%	44.2%	1491	↑ top
15	Wind Luxem Zander	1	2.6%	5	40.0%	44.4%	44.4%	45.1%	1282	—
16	Fire Neos	1	2.6%	6	16.7%	37.0%	41.6%	45.0%	1093	↓ low
17	Fire Umbra Ranger	1	2.6%	8	18.8%	39.4%	40.2%	45.0%	1173	↓ low
18	Fire Genbu	1	2.6%	8	12.5%	41.9%	39.5%	47.1%	957	↓ low
19	Fire Aggro	3	7.9%	17	17.6%	41.5%	38.3%	47.2%	1064	↓ low
20	Water Allies	1	2.6%	3	16.7%	42.9%	35.7%	42.9%	1207	↓ low