← Hans Arena Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Hans Arena Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Suzaku 2 6.7% 13 73.1% 66.2% 57.4% 56.6% 1451 ↑ top
2 Fire Rile 11 36.7% 38 60.5% 52.3% 55.3% 50.8% 1388 ↑ top
3 Wind Allies 1 3.3% 6 66.7% 68.5% 54.1% 58.6% 1303
4 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 3.3% 6 66.7% 53.2% 53.5% 49.7% 1442 ↑ top
5 Wind Seiryuu 3 10.0% 17 58.8% 57.0% 51.8% 53.2% 1328
6 Fire Arcane 1 3.3% 4 50.0% 46.6% 51.7% 50.4% 1428 ↑ top
7 Fire Suited 1 3.3% 6 66.7% 49.2% 51.5% 46.0% 1201 ↓ low
8 Water Allies 2 6.7% 14 57.1% 58.2% 50.3% 52.1% 1307
9 Slimes 1 3.3% 6 58.3% 55.8% 50.0% 50.7% 1208 ↓ low
10 Fire Exia 1 3.3% 5 30.0% 44.2% 48.0% 49.7% 1218 ↓ low
11 Fire Luxem Assassin 3 10.0% 7 35.7% 37.7% 46.2% 47.1% 1411 ↑ top
12 Wind Shadowstrike 6 20.0% 32 35.9% 44.2% 44.1% 48.2% 1295
13 Fire Firebloom Burn 2 6.7% 11 27.3% 40.5% 42.5% 45.3% 1230 ↓ low
14 Water Astra Ranger 1 3.3% 6 16.7% 35.4% 42.1% 44.5% 1047 ↓ low
15 Fire Oblation 1 3.3% 7 35.7% 43.6% 42.0% 44.3% 1383 ↑ top
16 Fire Crux Mage 1 3.3% 2 0.0% 24.8% 40.0% 34.8% 1532 ↑ top