← Store Championship Cardpoint

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship Cardpoint. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 5.9% 10 85.0% 67.7% 62.8% 59.1% 1361 ↑ top
2 Fire Rile 6 35.3% 37 59.5% 56.4% 54.6% 52.9% 1310
3 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 5.9% 10 70.0% 45.5% 54.2% 46.9% 1584 ↑ top
4 Wind Allies 1 5.9% 10 65.0% 48.6% 53.7% 49.1% 1439 ↑ top
5 Wind Seiryuu 1 5.9% 9 61.1% 59.7% 52.3% 53.0% 1319 ↑ top
6 Fire Aetherwing 1 5.9% 8 56.2% 48.7% 52.1% 49.5% 1277
7 Water Allies 2 11.8% 13 46.2% 55.4% 51.4% 55.1% 1210 ↓ low
8 Fire Tera Cleric 1 5.9% 9 44.4% 59.5% 49.1% 55.8% 1180 ↓ low
9 Wind Shadowstrike 2 11.8% 14 42.9% 46.7% 47.9% 48.6% 1317 ↑ top
10 Horse and Taxes 1 5.9% 8 50.0% 55.4% 46.2% 48.8% 1286
11 Fire Suzaku 1 5.9% 6 33.3% 44.8% 44.6% 45.5% 1153 ↓ low
12 Water Genbu 1 5.9% 5 20.0% 34.1% 40.0% 40.4% 1156 ↓ low
13 Water Astra Ranger 2 11.8% 9 0.0% 30.6% 37.3% 43.2% 1094 ↓ low
14 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 5.9% 8 12.5% 24.4% 35.5% 35.3% 1140 ↓ low