Fire Crux MageTier 1
at DTR Store Champs
decks
2
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
7-3-3
overall winrate
65.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.3%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
54.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1424
· median 1424
· range 1323–1526
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1220
Q3 1425
1607
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 14.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.9% | +6.7 |
| Fire Suited | 9.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -4.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Water Genbu | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.4% | +24.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
