Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at DTR Store Champs
decks
2
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-4-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.9%
avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1369
· median 1369
· range 1278–1461
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1220
Q3 1425
1607
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Genbu | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
