Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at DTR Store Champs
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.4%
avg ELO -3.8 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1203
· median 1203
· range 1203–1203
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1220
Q3 1425
1607
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Water Genbu | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
