Fire SuitedTier 1
at DTR Store Champs
decks
2
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
6-6-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.0%
avg ELO +3.3 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1299
· median 1299
· range 1191–1408
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1220
Q3 1425
1607
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +4.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Genbu | 9.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +6.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.9% | -8.7 |
