← Ember Rest - Store Championship 16AUG25
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Ember Rest - Store Championship 16AUG25
decks
2
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
2-8-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.7%
avg ELO -6.4 per match
expected value
36.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1348
· median 1348
· range 1311–1385
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1193
Q1 1311
Q3 1430
1678
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 47.1% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 33.6% | -10.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 17.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.8 |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
