Ember Rest - Store Championship 16AUG25

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Rile	Tier 1	8	47.1%	17-12-0	58.6%	52.8%	55.7%	52.6%	1438	—
2		Fire Suzaku	Tier 1	3	17.6%	11-6-0	64.7%	57.9%	56.6%	54.7%	1465	↑ top
3		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 2	2	11.8%	2-8-0	20.0%	35.7%	36.5%	41.4%	1348	↓ low
4		Fire Firebloom Burn	Tier 2	2	11.8%	1-6-0	14.3%	42.2%	40.4%	46.5%	1312	↓ low
5		Fire Suited	Tier 2	2	11.8%	7-6-0	53.8%	55.7%	46.3%	48.5%	1341	↓ low
6		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 2	2	11.8%	5-5-1	50.0%	44.5%	46.2%	46.2%	1536	↑ top
7		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	5.9%	2-4-0	33.3%	39.1%	47.1%	46.1%	1616	↑ top
8		Fire Oblation	Tier 1	1	5.9%	8-0-0	100.0%	75.0%	71.9%	66.5%	1374	—
9		Water Allies	Tier 2	1	5.9%	3-3-1	50.0%	52.4%	49.5%	51.1%	1416	—
10		Wind Allies	Tier 2	1	5.9%	1-3-0	25.0%	48.7%	40.6%	46.4%	1223	↓ low
11		Wind Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	5.9%	0-4-0	0.0%	26.1%	40.0%	41.6%	1270	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Rile 8 decks · 47.1%
• Fire Suzaku 3 decks · 17.6%
• Fire Crux Mage 2 decks · 11.8%
• Fire Firebloom Burn 2 decks · 11.8%
• Fire Suited 2 decks · 11.8%
• Wind Shadowstrike 2 decks · 11.8%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 5.9%
• Fire Oblation 1 deck · 5.9%
• Water Allies 1 deck · 5.9%
• Wind Allies 1 deck · 5.9%
• Wind Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 5.9%