← Ember Rest - Store Championship 16AUG25
Fire RileTier 1
at Ember Rest - Store Championship 16AUG25
decks
8
(47.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
29
17-12-0
overall winrate
58.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.8%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
55.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1438
· median 1402
· range 1311–1616
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1193
Q1 1311
Q3 1430
1678
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
12% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 17.6% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 45.5% | -2.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.8% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 66.4% | +10.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Suited | 11.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.3% | +4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.5% | +3.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 31.1% | -12.1 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 12 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Orb of Sealing, Surreptitious Scheme, Ciel, Mirage's Grave. Losers more often ran: Fluffy Shopkeep, Crux Sight, Fragmented Spirit of Fire.
Orb of Sealing
Winning decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Surreptitious Scheme
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Ciel, Mirage's Grave
Winning decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Baleful Oblation
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Manxome Armoire
Winning decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Crux Sight
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Fragmented Spirit of Fire
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Ghosts of Pendragon
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Merlin, Kingslayer
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Incarnate Majesty
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Show all 108 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 88 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.50 | 0 | 6 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 6 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.42 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.42 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.42 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.42 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.42 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.42 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.42 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.42 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.42 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Fireball | -0.42 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.42 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.42 | 0 | 5 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.33 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | +0.33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | +0.33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +0.33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.25 | 7 | 4 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.25 | 1 | 4 | 6 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.25 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.25 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.25 | 7 | 4 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.17 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.17 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.17 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.17 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.17 | 2 | 4 | 5 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 3 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 3 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |