← Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 4 | 8.0% | 22 | 75.0% | 58.7% | 62.0% | 55.1% | 1411 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 4.0% | 12 | 70.8% | 57.4% | 61.5% | 58.1% | 1466 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 75.0% | 54.4% | 58.8% | 52.8% | 1535 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 54.0% | 57.4% | 59.1% | 1130 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 75.0% | 67.0% | 57.0% | 56.5% | 1244 | — |
| 6 | Fire Suited | 3 | 6.0% | 18 | 55.6% | 57.7% | 55.2% | 58.1% | 1306 | — |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 2 | 4.0% | 12 | 45.8% | 49.8% | 54.4% | 55.0% | 1218 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 56.7% | 53.8% | 53.9% | 1328 | — |
| 9 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 33.3% | 46.1% | 52.4% | 53.8% | 1096 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Tera Silvie | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 66.6% | 52.3% | 56.2% | 1349 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Slimes | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 41.7% | 48.0% | 51.1% | 51.7% | 1165 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Allies | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 48.2% | 50.7% | 48.5% | 1346 | — |
| 13 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 4.0% | 12 | 62.5% | 60.2% | 50.6% | 52.3% | 1222 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Allies | 2 | 4.0% | 12 | 54.2% | 48.6% | 49.6% | 47.8% | 1434 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 4.0% | 12 | 50.0% | 52.2% | 49.4% | 50.5% | 1355 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 6.0% | 13 | 34.6% | 41.8% | 46.6% | 46.9% | 1257 | — |
| 17 | Fire Exia | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 54.1% | 46.2% | 49.6% | 1197 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 43.1% | 46.2% | 45.2% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 19 | Wind Shadowstrike | 11 | 22.0% | 49 | 41.8% | 40.5% | 46.1% | 45.9% | 1310 | — |
| 20 | Water Fractal | 3 | 6.0% | 18 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 46.1% | 47.8% | 1294 | — |
| 21 | Fire Ciel | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 16.7% | 34.2% | 41.8% | 43.2% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 2.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 36.7% | 41.1% | 42.9% | 1254 | — |
| 23 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 4.0% | 12 | 41.7% | 53.6% | 40.6% | 47.0% | 1155 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 4.0% | 11 | 18.2% | 35.7% | 32.9% | 39.6% | 1134 | ↓ low |