← Wilczek - Store Championships - Distorted Reflections
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 1
at Wilczek - Store Championships - Distorted Reflections
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 8.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.8% | +2.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.9% | +6.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashwick Cremator | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scathing Seminary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sigil of Budding Embers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Maiden of Shimmering Air | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acolyte of Cultivation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |