← Wilczek - Store Championships - Distorted Reflections
Water Tera MageTier 2
at Wilczek - Store Championships - Distorted Reflections
decks
1
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.8%
avg ELO -8.1 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1262
· median 1262
· range 1262–1262
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1253
Q3 1420
1543
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 35.7% | -13.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.9 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
