← Wilczek - Store Championships - Distorted Reflections
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.6% | +12.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.9% | -15.4 |
| Fire Suited | 8.3% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 56.8% | +3.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.5% | +4.1 |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 41.4% | -4.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.7% | +8.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.3% | +6.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.6% | +5.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.4% | -13.1 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Viridian Protective Trinket, Veiling Breeze, Dungeon Guide. Losers more often ran: Blinding Orb, Nullifying Mirror, Scatter Essence.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |