← Wilczek - Store Championships - Distorted Reflections
Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Wilczek - Store Championships - Distorted Reflections
decks
2
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
7-3-3
overall winrate
65.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1465
· median 1465
· range 1436–1493
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1253
Q3 1420
1543
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.3% | -8.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.1% | -6.7 |
| Fire Suited | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
