Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at 店家冠軍賽
decks
2
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
2-4-3
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.4%
avg ELO -5.3 per match
expected value
44.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1275
· median 1275
· range 1156–1393
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1046
Q1 1157
Q3 1335
1393
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.5% | -8.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 25.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.5% | -8.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 16.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.6 |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -4.7 |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
