Water Crux MerlinTier 2
at 店家冠軍賽
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.7%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
43.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1171
· median 1171
· range 1171–1171
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1046
Q1 1157
Q3 1335
1393
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.1% | -0.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
