Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Regionals
decks
4
(9.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30
14-10-6
overall winrate
56.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
51.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1291
· median 1283
· range 1233–1364
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1171
Q3 1328
1638
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.9% | 10 | 4-4-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -2.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Water Allies | 9.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.1% | +6.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.7% | -14.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -3.5 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Wind Allies | 4.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.3% | +4.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.4% | +1.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Oblation | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Rile | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
