Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.9% | 9 | 1-8-0 | 11.1% | 23.1% | 33.0% | -7.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Water Allies | 9.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.0% | -8.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.4% | +3.2 |
| Wind Allies | 4.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.9% | +2.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Oblation | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Rile | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 50 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slice and Dice | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Winbless Lookout | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shadow's Claw | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadeblood Coating | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cloaked Executioner | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Betraying Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sirocco Operative | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow Resonance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |