Water AlliesTier 1
at Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.9% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 41.3% | -4.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.6% | -26.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Water Rile | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.1% | -5.7 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inundating Clash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mandate of Honor | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Xia Hou Dun, Gloryseeker | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Automated Gardener | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |