Water Penguin MillTier 2
at Regionals
decks
1
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
1-4-2
overall winrate
28.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.1%
avg ELO -5.0 per match
expected value
47.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1113
· median 1113
· range 1113–1113
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1171
Q3 1328
1638
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 9.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.5% | -4.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Water Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Rile | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Penguin Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
