EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GAG Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.1% | 7 | 85.7% | 71.0% | 58.3% | 58.0% | 1315 | — |
| 2 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 9.4% | 14 | 64.3% | 58.7% | 56.0% | 55.1% | 1330 | — |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 65.0% | 57.8% | 54.2% | 52.7% | 1445 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 6.2% | 13 | 65.4% | 56.3% | 53.7% | 52.3% | 1301 | — |
| 5 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 9.4% | 11 | 59.1% | 46.7% | 52.1% | 48.4% | 1397 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Exia | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 55.0% | 54.2% | 50.8% | 51.5% | 1285 | — |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 59.2% | 50.0% | 53.9% | 1285 | — |
| 8 | Water Umbra Guardian | 3 | 9.4% | 13 | 50.0% | 55.3% | 49.1% | 51.0% | 1264 | — |
| 9 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 4 | 12.5% | 11 | 54.5% | 49.8% | 48.8% | 49.0% | 1305 | — |
| 10 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 6.2% | 9 | 50.0% | 53.0% | 48.7% | 49.8% | 1397 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 6.2% | 9 | 44.4% | 43.8% | 47.1% | 47.1% | 1299 | — |
| 12 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 42.2% | 46.7% | 44.9% | 1264 | — |
| 13 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 6.2% | 11 | 36.4% | 43.2% | 45.3% | 46.5% | 1230 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Fractal | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.2% | 45.0% | 45.2% | 1256 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 30.0% | 32.4% | 44.3% | 42.0% | 1280 | — |
| 16 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.3% | 42.2% | 43.2% | 1291 | — |
| 17 | Wind Allies | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 10.0% | 42.4% | 41.8% | 47.6% | 999 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 10.0% | 42.4% | 41.8% | 47.6% | 999 | ↓ low |