← Hobbies Corner DTR Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Hobbies Corner DTR Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Suzaku 1 5.3% 5 90.0% 71.6% 59.7% 59.3% 1448 ↑ top
2 Fire Aggro 3 15.8% 12 66.7% 53.8% 54.5% 51.2% 1468 ↑ top
3 Wind Shadowstrike 4 21.1% 13 53.8% 54.4% 54.1% 54.0% 1337
4 Water Allies 1 5.3% 4 50.0% 46.7% 51.0% 49.3% 1472 ↑ top
5 Water Genbu 1 5.3% 4 50.0% 49.0% 50.0% 49.6% 1391
6 Fire Crux Lorraine 2 10.5% 10 45.0% 38.0% 48.1% 45.1% 1401 ↑ top
7 Fire Suited 1 5.3% 3 33.3% 45.8% 46.7% 48.0% 1201 ↓ low
8 Wind Seiryuu 3 15.8% 9 44.4% 53.7% 44.5% 48.5% 1357
9 Water Crux Mage 1 5.3% 3 16.7% 39.7% 41.7% 42.9% 1196 ↓ low
10 Norm Tera Silvie 2 10.5% 5 10.0% 41.6% 40.6% 46.6% 1220 ↓ low