EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Rile | 5 | 35.7% | 20 | 72.5% | 63.9% | 60.7% | 57.2% | 1415 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Exia | 1 | 7.1% | 8 | 81.2% | 69.5% | 60.1% | 59.8% | 1467 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Byakko | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 80.0% | 63.5% | 58.0% | 56.6% | 1472 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 80.0% | 63.5% | 58.0% | 56.6% | 1472 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 48.5% | 50.0% | 47.6% | 1351 | — |
| 6 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 31.4% | 46.1% | 40.0% | 1496 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 7.1% | 7 | 28.6% | 45.0% | 45.1% | 48.3% | 1339 | — |
| 8 | Wind Allies | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 39.8% | 44.3% | 45.2% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Genbu | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 32.0% | 43.1% | 42.7% | 1467 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 14.3% | 8 | 25.0% | 44.7% | 42.8% | 47.4% | 1246 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 14.3% | 11 | 36.4% | 37.2% | 42.4% | 42.2% | 1362 | — |
| 12 | Fire Suited | 3 | 21.4% | 13 | 30.8% | 45.4% | 41.9% | 46.8% | 1268 | ↓ low |