EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Atlas Gamers DTR Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Aggro

54.5%

16.7% share · 13 matches

5.6% share · 4 matches

11.1% share · 13 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Genbu	1	5.6%	4	75.0%	56.3%	57.8%	53.7%	1491	↑ top
2	Fire Aggro	3	16.7%	13	53.8%	51.1%	54.5%	52.6%	1348	↓ low
3	Fire Suzaku	2	11.1%	13	61.5%	53.0%	53.2%	50.2%	1457	—
4	Fire Rile	11	61.1%	35	52.9%	52.8%	50.1%	51.2%	1414	—
5	Wind Shadowstrike	4	22.2%	23	50.0%	47.6%	48.7%	46.6%	1488	↑ top
6	Fire Luxem Assassin	2	11.1%	9	44.4%	49.0%	47.5%	50.0%	1465	↑ top
7	Fire Aetherwing	1	5.6%	5	40.0%	49.1%	45.0%	48.4%	1344	↓ low
8	Fire Umbra Guardian	1	5.6%	6	0.0%	35.6%	33.7%	42.4%	1131	↓ low