EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Win A Box Tpurnament.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 83.3% | 54.0% | 56.2% | 51.3% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 6 | 23.1% | 24 | 60.4% | 51.0% | 55.0% | 50.6% | 1265 | — |
| 3 | Wind Allies | 2 | 7.7% | 11 | 63.6% | 51.8% | 53.1% | 50.6% | 1146 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Rile | 3 | 11.5% | 16 | 62.5% | 51.9% | 52.8% | 50.6% | 1339 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 51.0% | 50.3% | 1222 | — |
| 6 | Fire Exia | 1 | 3.8% | 7 | 35.7% | 48.6% | 50.7% | 50.3% | 1143 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 7.7% | 8 | 68.8% | 52.2% | 50.4% | 50.1% | 1312 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Neos | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 58.3% | 49.5% | 50.2% | 49.5% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Astra Ranger | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 50.5% | 50.0% | 50.8% | 1074 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 50.0% | 51.6% | 48.9% | 50.4% | 1058 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 50.0% | 51.6% | 48.9% | 50.4% | 1058 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.8% | 7 | 50.0% | 49.5% | 47.7% | 49.5% | 1425 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 7.7% | 14 | 42.9% | 47.5% | 46.4% | 49.1% | 1272 | — |
| 14 | Slimes | 4 | 15.4% | 19 | 42.1% | 49.0% | 44.7% | 49.2% | 1230 | — |
| 15 | Water Fractal | 1 | 3.8% | 3 | 0.0% | 46.4% | 40.0% | 48.4% | 1144 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 7.7% | 12 | 16.7% | 44.9% | 38.7% | 47.9% | 1279 | — |