EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 卡卡貓桌遊店家冠軍賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 3 | 16.7% | 28 | 66.1% | 61.0% | 58.3% | 56.3% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 5.6% | 10 | 60.0% | 66.2% | 54.5% | 59.6% | 1243 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Fire Suited | 2 | 11.1% | 22 | 59.1% | 57.1% | 52.8% | 52.6% | 1318 | — |
| 4 | Fire Rile | 10 | 55.6% | 55 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 52.4% | 51.5% | 1357 | — |
| 5 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 5.6% | 11 | 54.5% | 47.1% | 50.6% | 48.1% | 1471 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.6% | 7 | 57.1% | 43.2% | 50.0% | 46.9% | 1536 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 11.1% | 15 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 48.9% | 50.5% | 1320 | — |
| 8 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 11.1% | 16 | 50.0% | 43.2% | 47.4% | 44.2% | 1343 | — |
| 9 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.6% | 10 | 40.0% | 39.3% | 45.6% | 43.7% | 1450 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 11.1% | 15 | 26.7% | 42.6% | 40.7% | 46.1% | 1318 | — |
| 11 | Water Neos | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 0.0% | 36.6% | 40.0% | 46.0% | 1026 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.6% | 6 | 16.7% | 38.6% | 37.3% | 41.9% | 1284 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.6% | 8 | 25.0% | 34.0% | 36.8% | 37.9% | 1214 | ↓ low |