← 家家美樂地 8月23日 Store Championship
Fire SuzakuTier 2
at 家家美樂地 8月23日 Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 33.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 39.9% | -7.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.4% | -10.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.4% | -10.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |