Fire RileTier 1
at 卡庫店家冠軍賽
decks
9
(42.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
44
23-17-4
overall winrate
56.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.3%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
52.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1307
· median 1293
· range 1209–1419
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1233
Q3 1352
1419
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
22% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suited | 19.0% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 56.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 14.3% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -2.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.5% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 40.9% | -5.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.2% | -8.8 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.6% | +10.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.4% | +1.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Spirit of Fire, Sword of Seeking, Fiery Interference. Losers more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Hasty Messenger, Regal Inquisition.
Spirit of Fire
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Sword of Seeking
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Fiery Interference
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirit Blade: Ascension
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Regal Inquisition
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Spirit of Serene Fire
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Carter, Synthetic Reaper
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Backup Charger
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 137 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 117 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | -0.67 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Condemned Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Obsequious Blow | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smashing Force | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flash Grenade | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penetrator Round | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Load Soul | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Accursed Strength | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Malevolent Vow | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Lance | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nightmare Coil | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Punishing Cartridge | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demon's Aim | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Plated Bullet | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| False Step | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |