Water AlliesTier 1
at 卡庫店家冠軍賽
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-0-4
overall winrate
77.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
70.5%
avg ELO +9.5 per match
expected value
59.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
60.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1352
· median 1352
· range 1352–1352
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1233
Q3 1352
1419
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 42.9% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.8% | +8.8 |
| Fire Suited | 19.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
