EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR-Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 7.1% | 9 | 77.8% | 61.1% | 60.0% | 55.9% | 1446 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 7.1% | 7 | 85.7% | 61.0% | 58.6% | 54.2% | 1350 | — |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 75.0% | 66.8% | 56.2% | 56.4% | 1313 | — |
| 4 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 7.1% | 7 | 78.6% | 60.5% | 55.9% | 53.1% | 1385 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Rile | 4 | 28.6% | 24 | 52.1% | 53.9% | 52.1% | 52.6% | 1319 | — |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 2 | 14.3% | 15 | 53.3% | 53.8% | 50.6% | 51.4% | 1333 | — |
| 7 | Water Allies | 2 | 14.3% | 16 | 46.9% | 46.2% | 49.0% | 48.3% | 1316 | — |
| 8 | Fire Suited | 2 | 14.3% | 17 | 41.2% | 40.2% | 48.3% | 46.6% | 1382 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 1 | 7.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 46.9% | 47.4% | 1359 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 7.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 46.9% | 47.4% | 1359 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 33.3% | 53.0% | 43.6% | 48.8% | 1205 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 14.3% | 13 | 26.9% | 39.7% | 43.2% | 45.4% | 1288 | — |
| 13 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 8.3% | 29.8% | 42.5% | 43.4% | 1200 | ↓ low |