Fire ExiaTier 2
at 8號卡牌屋店冠賽
decks
2
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
5-6-5
overall winrate
46.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.3%
avg ELO -2.3 per match
expected value
47.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1320
· median 1320
· range 1231–1409
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1243
Q3 1417
1542
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 40.0% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.9% | -2.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -15.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 39.4% | -7.9 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Water Fractal | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
