Water AlliesTier 2
at 8號卡牌屋店冠賽
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 40.0% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 50.6% | +0.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.3% | -11.2 |
| Fire Exia | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +15.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.5% | +19.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 38.5% | -8.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.4% | +21.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.5% | +11.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 54 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 54 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Obsequious Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Confidant's Oath | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rivulet Adjutant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tsunami of Nanyue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hydroguard Retainer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bubble Mage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ceasing Edict | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Knowledge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coriolis Ward | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vigil Rempart | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |