Fire Dawn of AshesTier 2
at 漫果子大直店8/30 DTR店冠賽
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-5-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
28.3%
avg ELO -12.5 per match
expected value
35.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
37.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1153
· median 1153
· range 1153–1153
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1080
Q1 1243
Q3 1369
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 65.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.4% | -13.1 |
| Fire Exia | 15.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Water Fractal | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
