Water AlliesTier 1
at 漫果子大直店8/30 DTR店冠賽
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
11-1-0
overall winrate
91.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
75.6%
avg ELO +10.9 per match
expected value
65.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
64.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1438
· median 1438
· range 1438–1438
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1080
Q1 1243
Q3 1369
1730
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 65.0% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 68.8% | +10.0 |
| Fire Exia | 15.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Neos | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
