Horse and TaxesTier 1
at 漫果子大直店8/30 DTR店冠賽
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
12-4-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.7%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
60.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1409
· median 1409
· range 1319–1499
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1080
Q1 1243
Q3 1369
1730
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 65.0% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +0.5 |
| Fire Exia | 15.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 60.2% | +7.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.8 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.0% | -6.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Horse and Taxes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
