EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.0% | 9 | 77.8% | 60.1% | 62.2% | 57.5% | 1457 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 59.0% | 55.0% | 54.5% | 1171 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Fire Rile | 6 | 30.0% | 28 | 60.7% | 55.7% | 54.5% | 52.8% | 1264 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 10.0% | 10 | 70.0% | 63.4% | 54.0% | 57.1% | 1336 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 5.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 62.2% | 53.3% | 56.5% | 1233 | — |
| 6 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 10.0% | 16 | 62.5% | 44.6% | 52.2% | 46.3% | 1408 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 53.5% | 50.0% | 51.3% | 1272 | — |
| 8 | Water Genbu | 1 | 5.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 45.1% | 48.2% | 47.4% | 1295 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 61.1% | 47.5% | 51.7% | 1228 | — |
| 10 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 65.3% | 45.5% | 51.3% | 1100 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 30.0% | 36.7% | 43.3% | 42.8% | 1108 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Slimes | 1 | 5.0% | 6 | 16.7% | 32.5% | 43.1% | 44.2% | 1150 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Suited | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 48.5% | 41.8% | 47.3% | 1031 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 5.0% | 6 | 8.3% | 25.4% | 40.8% | 41.8% | 1146 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Aetherwing | 2 | 10.0% | 12 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 39.9% | 40.7% | 1193 | — |
| 16 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 5.0% | 8 | 25.0% | 45.1% | 37.1% | 45.3% | 1149 | ↓ low |