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Water Astra RangerTier 2
at VPC Store Champs - DTR Season
decks
2
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-6-1
overall winrate
35.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.4%
avg ELO -3.0 per match
expected value
43.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1252
· median 1252
· range 1193–1311
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1307
Q3 1420
1678
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 10.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.8% | -7.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Fire Neos | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.4% | -11.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
