← VPC Store Champs - DTR Season
Water FractalTier 2
at VPC Store Champs - DTR Season
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.3%
avg ELO -5.6 per match
expected value
42.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1207
· median 1207
· range 1207–1207
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1307
Q3 1420
1678
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
