Fire RileTier 1
at 0907(日)永和豬豬玩具_下午1點_店冠賽
decks
9
(28.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
43
21-10-12
overall winrate
62.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.4%
avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
55.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1338
· median 1401
· range 1088–1482
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1205
Q3 1402
1539
44% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
11% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 7 | 3-1-3 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 50.8% | +0.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 58.5% | +4.9 |
| Fire Suited | 9.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.9% | +5.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 65.1% | +8.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 34.5% | -11.6 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.6% | +11.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.7% | +6.5 |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +4.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.0% | +5.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.2% | -7.5 |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.5% | +4.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Resolute Stand, Fiery Interference. Losers more often ran: Under Fire, Evercurrent Raider, Three of Hearts.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Fiery Interference
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Regal Inquisition
Winning decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Rending Flames
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Under Fire
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Evercurrent Raider
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Three of Hearts
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
The Looking Glass
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Expose Darkness
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 131 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 111 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under Fire | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Chamber of Reflections | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Punishing Cartridge | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Demon's Aim | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| False Step | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Reposition | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nightmare Coil | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hulao Gate, Sun's Ascent | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ashwound Shot | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Manaflare Barrage | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |